Icelandic Volcano Alert: Increased Likelihood of Eruption at Sundhnúkur Crater Row (2026)

Increased likelihood of an eruption is ongoing on the Sundhnúkur Crater Row. Here's a summary of the latest updates and key points:

Magma Accumulation:

• Magma accumulation has been steady but slow in recent weeks.
• A new eruption is expected as long as magma continues to accumulate.
• Uncertainty regarding timing is high when accumulation is slow.
• The amount of magma accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption is the fifth largest to date.

Seismic Activity:

• Seismic activity remains low, with occasional small earthquakes.
• No significant changes in hazard assessment until January 6th unless activity increases.

Weather Conditions:

• Weather conditions may affect measurements, particularly visibility and instrument sensitivity.
• The Icelandic Meteorological Office will monitor closely.

Hazard Assessment:

• The hazard assessment remains unchanged until January 6th unless activity changes.

Deformation Measurements:

• Deformation measurements indicate ongoing uplift and magma accumulation.
• The likelihood of a new eruption increases when a similar volume of magma has accumulated as before the last eruption.

Timing Uncertainty:

• It's difficult to predict the exact timing of the next eruption with accuracy.
• The current accumulation period could last longer than expected.

Seismic Activity Near Krýsuvík:

• Seismic activity continues near Krýsuvík, with small earthquakes detected daily.
• Subsidence is ongoing, though the rate has decreased in recent weeks.

Hazard Map:

• The hazard map remains unchanged until November 25th unless new activity warrants an update.

Key Points:

• The rate of magma accumulation has remained stable over the past two weeks.
• The likelihood of a magma intrusion and eruption remains elevated in the coming weeks.
• Timing uncertainty spans months.
• Hazard assessment remains unchanged until December 9th.

Additional Updates:

• More detailed information is available on the Icelandic Volcano Web Portal: islenskeldfjoll.is
• The IMO maintains 24-hour monitoring of natural hazards in Iceland.